Why Organisations Need to Embrace Uncertainty - Part One
synopsis
Part1: It’s the End of an Era
The change we’re experiencing in our world today is fundamental and historical: it’s the end of an era of human history, an era that goes all the way back to the end of WWII.
Every aspect of our world is being stress-tested and will ultimately be restructured.
Part2: Get ready for more change
The pace and intensity of disruption is set to increase as a consequence of the combined effects of technology disruption, major upheavals in society, and global politics and economics.
Nothing will be left untouched in this transition.
This presents both risk and opportunity to organisations: Those organisations who do not rise to meet the challenge are in danger of ending up as roadkill; On the other hand there has never been a time of greater opportunity for those who understand the zeitgeist and can leverage it effectively.
Part3: The answer: Embrace uncertainty and learn to thrive in chaos
Embrace uncertainty: It is no longer possible to predict the future with any degree of certainty, and so strategy must now assume multiple possible futures or scenarios. Leaders must also shift mindset: from seeing change and uncertainty as something to be managed away, to seeing change as opportunity to be maximised.
Thrive in chaos: In this environment, fixed and cumbersome organisations are a major strategic risk. Organisations must be agile and fast-moving to be able to respond to changes in the external environment in real-time.
PART 1: The End of an Era
THE END OF AN ERA
There’s a considerable degree of angst and confusion in the world right now, as people and organisations struggle to make some sense of our times.
It’s often said that we live in VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous) times - but this term doesn’t really describe the full extent of things. It’s our belief that what we’re experiencing is actually the end of an era.
The turbulence that we’re all feeling is the transition from old world to new: the structures of our worlds being stress-tested and re-created in new ways. Absolutely everything is in play, it’s an extraordinary moment in human history. What tomorrow will look like is anyone’s guess.
There are many more waves of disruption to unfold, each of which will be significantly more powerful than the internet and mobile disruptions which have already seen off some of our biggest companies and changed our day to day lives in very significant ways.
Some will be driven by technology of course, but this isn’t just a technology revolution, we’re also seeing fundamental changes in society, politics, the environment, and the economic system. And the changes aren’t stopping any time soon.
The Era That Was
In his book Homo Deus, Yuval Noah Harari says “In 2016 the world is dominated by the liberal package of individualism, human rights, democracy and the free market”. He calls it “modernity”.
The key tenets of the era that was can be summarised as follows:
Prosperity and optimism
Since the Second World War we in the developed western world have had the luxury of decades without war, increasing prosperity, access to publicly-funded education and healthcare, increased health and longevity, improved urban spaces, high levels of employment, and pensions when we grow old. As Stephen Pinker says we really have never had it so good. There has been a sense of optimism among the general population, the idea that things will just keep getting better and better. We are all on an unstoppable progression to individual self-fulfilment.
Democracy and capitalism
There has been general and unquestioned support for our system of liberal western democracy and capitalism. A sense that this might just be the answer to the question of how society can best organise itself for the wellbeing of it’s people.
Centrist politics
Ideological concepts like left and right wing are reducing in importance as over time we have become economically capitalist and socially liberal. The political left hasn’t known how to respond to all of this apparent stability - there is nothing left to fight for and so it has sort of given up and died. Centrist politics and policies are the order of the day.
Employment and economic security
In this world we, the people, had a fair deal with the Government - we paid (reasonable) taxes, and the Government took care of us if we’re sick, old, or out of work. We had a deal with our employers (whether private or public sector) - turn up for work every day, do a ‘good job’, and in turn they offered us long-term employment, stability, healthcare, and the opportunity for self-betterment. Notwithstanding an economic crash every twenty years or so.
Identity politics
We believe in fairness and equality. A gradual shift of economic, social, and political power and rights to women, LGBTI, the black community, is seen as an inevitability, even though progress towards equality might be slow in places.
Secularism
We were mostly moving towards atheist/secular because who needs God when you can have material possessions instead?
Globalism
And we were following our leaders to a globalist ideal – the virtues of free trade, the unhindered movement of people, governments working together to meet mutual needs which reduces the incentive for disputes and wars. Educated liberals start to see themselves as citizens of the world, and of course we all love a foreign holiday.
What’s coming next?
In Part 2, we’ll look at the forces that are driving change in all of these areas, and the scale and intensity of the disruption that’s coming.
In Part 3, we’ll look at what this means for organisations - particularly in the area of strategy, where organisations now need to actively consider multiple scenarios in order to embrace uncertainty.